Proverbs 22.3 joins critical thinking with foresight. As a result, I anticipate and avoid problems. Thus, it’s important to recognize that critical thinking gives leadership foresight.
The Importance of Foresight
As expected, critical thinking and foresight is an important pairing. Most importantly because of the benefits of foresight.
In contrast, the shallow-minded lack foresight, ignore warning signs, and pay the penalty.
It’s an understatement to say critical thinking is an essential skill for a leader because critical thinking gives leadership foresight.
Critical Thinking Defined
Most basically, critical thinking involves analysis, evaluation, then a decision.
Similarly, it combines information gathering, conceptualization, and communication.
Moreover, critical thinking contrasts with the simple accumulation of factual knowledge, such as memorizing a list.
Why is a list of facts a problem? Because many times we simply don’t know what we don’t know!
Additionally, critical thinking implies I’m objective. Unfortunately, decision making is often based on emotion, rather than on objective evidence.
Actually, the “how to” of critical thinking is as old as the Dale Carnegie course. And, if you view Proverbs as a skills-development course, it’s older still!
Critical Thinking and Cognitive Bias
Most practically, critical thinking should help a decision maker overcome various cognitive biases.
Therefore, critical thinking is a way to address biases in logic. In fact, those biases impact an organization’s response to a rapidly-changing environment.
Thankfully, critical thinking gives leadership foresight.
Critical Thinking in Proverbs
The Hebrew word arum I’m translating critical thinking is used several times in the Proverbs.
Interestingly, the King James translates the word as “prudent.” Thus, it means circumspect, shrewd, or discreet.
Newer versions use “sensible” because they’re focusing on the behavioral outcome.
Critical Thinking Outcomes
Now, let’s look at the outcomes of critical thinking, from the Proverbs.
First, critical thinking lets me avoid embarrassing, over-reactions. For example, note Proverbs 12.16.
Second, critical thinking doesn’t try to impress others with factual knowledge. For example, read Proverbs 12.23 and also 13.16.
Instead, critical thinkers use knowledge appropriately. For example, look at Proverbs 14.18.
Third, critical thinkers are self-aware. For instance, see Proverbs 14.8,
Critical Thinking – Discernment and Foresight
Fourth, critical thinking builds a decision maker’s discernment. For example, see Proverbs 14.15.
Fifth, critical thinkers have foresight. For instance, see our focus verse in Proverbs 22.3. Actually, that precept is repeated in Proverbs 27.12.
Thus, critical thinking is a source of foresight for a leader.
Critical Thinking – Pro/Con
According to the Proverbs, critical thinking is beneficial.
Why? Because critical thinking brings self-control. Also, an appropriate level of reliance on factual knowledge. In addition, self-awareness and discernment. Finally, foresight.
Moreover, in Proverbs, critical thinking contrasts with several negatives. In other words, foolish anger (12.16). Also, foolish speaking (12.23). In addition, self-deception (14.8). Finally, shallow-mindedness. For examples, see Proverbs 14.15, 14.18, and 22.3.
Warning Signs – An Example
Regarding warnings, Proverbs 22.3 uses the phrase “pay the penalty” or “suffer the consequences.” Thus, depending on the translation, different words describe the outcome of a missed warning.
What follows is an example of missing a warning sign.
It’s a reader response. The note is from the 12/24/19 Wall Street Journal daily 10-Point e-newsletter. The response is about speeding tickets from traffic cameras.
Here’s the reader’s response. “While living (abroad), I received enough traffic-camera tickets to lose all my license points. The sad thing is that every camera has a warning sign 1 kilometer in advance. …”
When we miss an obvious warning sign we are (literally) fined! Thus here, as in Proverbs, some things, never change.
Critical Thinking in Practice
I think 1 Kings 3.9 is Solomon’s model for critical thinking. There, he uses a three-stage decision model. In fact, this model is valuable for leaders.
1). Listen Thus, he wanted to listen carefully, deeply.
2). Discern Next, he asked to know the difference between good and bad.
3). Act Finally, he makes a decision.
LISTEN – DISCERN – ACT
In short, get the facts. That’s information gathering. Then, analyze based on your view of the facts. Next, form a decision. Finally, communicate what you have decided. In other words, that’s critical thinking at its core.
Additionally, this decision model avoids the cognitive biases that produce poor decisions. Moreover, it’s one of the models in Proverbs for using the precepts.
Leadership Impact
What’s the end game here for critical thinking? For a leader, I believe the desired outcome is inpact so you can move the organization forward toward goal accomplishment.
However, “a leader must be as jealously protective of their people as they are zealously focused on their goal.”
Therefore, I can be impactful. But, I must recognize that critical thinking gives leadership foresight. Additionally, foresight must be combined with compassion to be effective.
Leadership Insight
Why do leaders miss warning signs?
Next, why are the warnings about bad outcomes so obvious – after the fact?
Like it or not, it’s not just the naive and inexperienced who make colossial mistakes!
You should be able to rattle off a “Why” list fairly quickly.
Missed Warnings – my part
First, are common, human traits.
Some leaders don’t listen. Or, they’re arrogant. Or, they don’t believe things are changing.
Unfortunately, colleges are looking over the edge of an impending enrollment cliff. What’s worse, some fit this category because they don’t see the risks.
A leader who sows arrogance reaps disaster.
Worse yet, some leaders are misled by advisers. Or, even worse, consultants hired to review operations. For example, think of dams for holding back waste-water storage in a mining operation.
Occasionally, leaders don’t know what they don’t know. For example, when/where is the next natural disaster, or train derailment, or mass shooting, or … Because these will disrupt our operations.
A few honestly believe the conspiracy theories they’re reading on the Internet! As bad as it sounds, these aren’t everyday buffoons. Thus, think politicians and deep-state conspiracies!
Missed Warnings – Organizational
Second, is organizational culture.
One of the worst ways to miss warnings is to have an organizational culture that disregards contrary data. Or, places production targets ahead of product safety.
For example, think of software to control an airplane that is released, but it contains fatal flaws. Therefore, under certain conditions, it forces the aircraft into an uncontrollable dive.
Or, the organization believes it’s immune to new competition. In this case, think of a manufacturer of film for cameras that misreads the digital photo market. Or, any other firm impacted by digital anything!
Missed Warnings – Uncontrollable
Third, are one-of-a-kind events.
Do you remember hearing that housing prices in the U.S. will always go up? Not! Thus, perhaps there really are limits to arrogance and hubris.
Next, remember being told that pooling high-risk mortgages magically reduces their risk? No! Therefore, some risks cannot be eliminated because of back-end actions to cover sloppy work on the front end.
Ok, you get the picture. In fact, you can probably think of other examples to expand this list.
Alas, human stupidity, even among leaders, does appear to be limitless!
Warning Signs and Foresight
Unfortunately, all the decision algorithms in the world don’t protect me from missed warnings. Likewise, the best forecasts are tossed out when markets turn down.
So, why do warning signs seem so obvious – after the fact? I don’t have a simple answer here. However, I think it may have something to do with why executives get paid more for foresight than for hindsight!
What’s the reality here? Critical thinking and foresight are only as good as the leader’s willingness to set aside the problem list in the previous section of this post.
Like it or not, critical thinking isn’t a cure-all for the unplanned, or the unexpected, or that which is simply ignored!
Apply This Today!
It’s important to recognize that critical thinking gives leadership foresight.
Critical thinking and foresight can help me see warning signs.
However, critical thinking and foresight are not a cure-all for my human nature!
It would be nice to say that being a person of faith is the cure-all for missed warnings. Unfortunately, we have a Bible full of contrary examples. In fact, we see people of faith, who were in leadership positions, who made poor choices.
Unfortunately, even being a person of faith isn’t a cure-all for my human nature!
I can and should learn from poor forecasts and misspent strategies. That said, there seems to be much more market upside from critical thinking that yields foresight, discernment, and sound judgment.
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