Leaders must exercise good judgment. In fact, three “musts” for effective leadership are foresight, a just character, and good judgment, according to Proverbs 16.10.
Without these, leaders cannot make sound decisions. Those decisions are based on good judgment. Thus the bottom line is leaders must exercise good judgment.
Foresight is essential for a leader. Moreover, foresight must be stacked on top of a just character to yield good judgment. Proverbs 16.10 paraphrase
The Precept Applied:
Under the best circumstances, it’s really difficult to create and carryout sound strategy.
However, without a clear understanding of where things are heading, or likely outcomes of specific decisions, strategy becomes pointless.
Hence, the need for foresight.
Thus, effective leaders look into the future and around corners. Why? Because with foresight leaders can figure out where things are heading. In fact, that’s their job!
It follows that stakeholders expect leaders to have foresight. Because without foresight you don’t recognize economic trends. Similarly, you miss demand shifts. Likewise, you see new initiatives from competitors – too late.
Foresight Plus
Proverbs 16.10 tells us that foresight was expected of leaders thousands of years ago. In addition, the precept mixes in two other fundamental elements.
First, foresight requires a just character. Conversely, I could write off “err in judgment” as making a mistake. However, with that reading, I’m never allowed to make a mistake!
Thus, I believe the verse is saying leaders with character flaws are the problem. In other words, no matter how deep their foresight poor character yields poor judgment.
Second, foresight is of limited value if it’s not paired with good judgement. Why so? Because knowing the future and responding ethically and effectively to the future are different things!
Therefore, leaders must exercise good judgment.
Building Foresight
But, how does a leader build foresight?
Well, answers to this question include the following. First, create detailed simulations of the future. Often, those forecasts use predictive analytics.
Second, bringing together experts and looking for consensus is another way to build a forecast. In fact, the ancients note this technique in Proverbs 11.14 – “… there’s safety in getting multiple opinions.”
Third, experience is a great teacher. However, that assumes that I’m learning from those experiences. Thus, I predict what’s likely to happen because I know what has already occurred.
Fourth, there’s always the black arts that use various forms of divination. However, divination in place of seeking God’s leadership is criticized in scripture. For example, see these references from the law, the history, and prophecy: Numbers 23.23, Deuteronomy 18.9-14, 2 Kings 17.12-18, Jeremiah 14.13-16, and Ezekiel 21.21-24.
Finally, the old standby: the best way to predict the future is to create it.
What Could Go Wrong?
Ultimately, predictions are just that – forecasts of what might occur because some events aren’t predictable.
In addition, there are other problems. A long timeframe, for example. Or, black swan occurrences. Similarly, a rapid pace of change in the environment. All together, these are some factors that make for less accurate forecasts.
The result? A lack of foresight creates an opening for poor judgment and bad decisions.
Recently, I had a conversation with a CEO about where his industry is heading. He spoke about current price levels for their key raw material. The executive also noted regulations that were driving decisions.
He mentioned multi-year payback periods. He was concerned about international political uncertainties. Thus, many factors complicate their forecasts.
The result? Their investment decisions are less certain leading to increased risks.
Another CEO once told me leaders get paid to make decisions! The takeaway? Risk or not, the leader must move forward.
Therefore, leaders must exercise good judgment.
Leadership Insight
Leaders may believe they are too sophisticated to rely on the black arts. They have other ways to create forecasts and prepare for anticipated changes.
But, how many leaders are misled by advisers who are deeply biased toward certain predetermined outcomes?
Remember, the assumption behind the “multitude of counselors.” It assumes that the counselors are not prejudiced, or dishonest, or just plain dumb!
How may leaders fall for rumors? For conspiracy theories?
What’s worse, how many leaders rely on careless, inaccurate, or horribly incomplete data when making decisions?
Or, they miss the vital few. Why? Because they spend time on the trivial many. “The truth is, when you’re trying to get everything right, you’re getting nothing right.”
Leaders must exercise foresight. Additionally, effective leaders are able to think critically. They exercise that foresight with balance and clarity and accuracy.
Moreover, effective leaders recognize the need for a just character. It’s a guide as they go through the decision process, because their motives are frequently questioned.
Personal Insight
One expectation of good judgment is having the foresight to recognize the likely implications of certain behaviors.
In short, I see where my actions are likely to end up!
I recently watched a group of senior faculty members get trapped in an extended decision process. Unfortunately, the premise of the debate had been settled weeks before!
What’s worse, one member of the group was a key player in reaching the already-settled conclusion!
What’s even worse yet? After being told of the risks, they continued to ignore the likely fall-out up the chain. They missed that which was obvious to everyone around them.
Unbelievably, they simply couldn’t grasp how their behavior was damaging the credibility of the entire unit!
One take-away for me, as I tried to mitigate that damage with upper management, is that living in the weeds is fatal!
Thus, leaders must exercise good judgement.
It follows that they should make wise decisions. But good judgement cannot occur without foresight. Leaders must see where their actions are likely to lead.
Apply This Today!
Leaders are expected to exercise foresight as part of their decision processes.
Conversely, a lack of foresight is fatal because the leader never identifies that which is most essential.
Fortunately, foresight that’s guided by a sound character improves the leader’s chances of exercising good judgment.
What’s more, foresight that’s informed by spiritual sensitivity positions a leader for significant and lasting influence.
Foresight is an expectation. Good judgment is an expectation. However, both are minimal expectations for remaining in a leadership position.
Therefore, leaders must exercise good judgment.
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